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Google Research: Moore’s Law series

Not strictly a NoSQL or even data related series of posts from Google research, but a very interesting read about Moore’s law, what kind of research is happening in this space, and what we need to do to have the same advance in 10-15 years:

This series quotes major sources about Moore’s Law and explores how they believe Moore’s Law will likely continue over the course of the next several years. We will also explore if there are fields other than digital electronics that either have an emerging Moore’s Law situation, or promises for such a Law that would drive their future performance.

  1. Brief history of Moore’s Law and current state
  2. More Moore and More than Moore
  3. Possible extrapolations over the next 15 years and impact
  4. Moore’s Law in other domains

A teaser:

As we look at the years 2020–2025, we can see that the physical dimensions of CMOS manufacture are expected to be crossing below the 10 nanometer threshold. It is expected that as dimensions approach the 5–7 nanometer range it will be difficult to operate any transistor structure that is utilizing the metal-oxide semiconductor (MOS) physics as the basic principle of operation. Of course, we expect that new devices, like the very promising tunnel transistors, will allow a smooth transition from traditional CMOS to this new class of devices to reach these new levels of miniaturization. However, it is becoming clear that fundamental geometrical limits will be reached in the above timeframe. By fully utilizing the vertical dimension, it will be possible to stack layers of transistors on top of each other, and this 3D approach will continue to increase the number of components per square millimeter even when horizontal physical dimensions will no longer be amenable to any further reduction. It seems important, then, that we ask ourselves a fundamental question: “How will we be able to increase the computation and memory capacity when the device physical limits will be reached?” It becomes necessary to re-examine how we can get more information in a finite amount of space.

Original title and link: Google Research: Moore’s Law series (NoSQL database©myNoSQL)