Larry Dignan summarizing a research by a Cowen analyst:
We believe the trend in compute is massively distributed commodity boxes,
and while there is a market for products like HANA and Exadata, it is
significantly smaller than optimistic descriptions by SAP and Oracle. We
believe HANA revenue is being inflated by subjective product revenue
allocation to HANA at the expense of its traditional Apps and BI businesses,
and swapping HANA for unused licenses. We think this inflates seat count
with no incremental cash to the firm. At some point investors will likely
start to worry about the implications on the other 90% of license sales we
expect will eventually turn negative. We believe the offense in this case is
getting into the data management business with old product (Sybase) and high
priced hardware (HANA). While the impact on the model is low, the
reputational cost to management could be high.
I have to confess that I’ve never really understood what these estimations are built upon. Maybe if I got this, I’d start calling myself an analyst.
Original title and link: The Market for Products Like HANA and Exadata ( ©myNoSQL)